"Numbers and Statistics" Archive

NY Giants WR Hakeem Nicks isn’t worried about stats because he has enough women. Possibly five!

Earlier today, NY Giants WR Hakeem Nicks was quoted as saying “stats are for girls” as in guys who care about stats are only interested in showing them off. Lost in the need for him to clarify that point (for obvious reasons), was the greater point that stats are meaningful but often not as meaningful as people think. With the pervasiveness of fantasy sports, stat hogs have even more to chew on but stats out of context are just that - fantasy sports. 

I can’t tell you how it burns my grits when I see people going off about how this or that player is “trash” because he only has XXX receptions or XXX interceptions or whatever the case may be. Meanwhile, that player may be playing some of the best football he’s ever played but it doesn’t show up on the statline for various reasons.

No single stat should ever sit at the table alone. 

Not too long ago, Chuck Klosterman at Grantland talked about how fantasy sports is changing our perception of players. Klosterman used Titans RB Chris Johnson,who had a mediocre season last year and is in the midst of a pretty good one this year, as an example of how the obsession with stats is dehumanizing players and skewing the way we think of them now and could conceivably in future affect player legacies. Stats already play a big part of whether a player makes it into the Hall of Fame-we want records and things of that nature to be broken before we shower someone with praise. But Klosterman envisions this going a step further to essentially categorize non record breaking or non fantasy stud seasons as failures. 

I think Klosterman makes a salient point that also speaks to one of the major issues with stats and the inability of one stat to tell you about all relevant factors e.g. performance in clutch times (it’s basketball season so we might as well get used to that term again), snaps where a player is double teamed or has the defense rolled to his side, how one players’ absence or lack of performance affects others (ex: the impact losing a guy like JJ Watt would invariably have on the Texans secondary) or any other number of factors that can only be gauged by WATCHING the sport or, at the very least, looking at more than 1 or 2 statistical areas. 

It is for that reason ESPN came up with the total QB rating that nobody uses except them. But even though I refuse to pay attention to total QBR that doesn’t mean I don’t understand the spirit behind it. ESPN was looking for another way to measure a QBs success rather than simply looking at percentage of completed passes. In order to really get an idea of how a QB is performing in totality you want to consider a number of factors..average yards per pass attempt, what part of that is the WR’s YACs, how many times they’ve been hurried, hit or sacked, how long they hold the ball, how their O line stacks up, how they perform in the redzone specifically, how they run their 2 minute offense, what receiving weapons they have etc. etc. etc.!  

On Nicks, the Stat Gods at Pro Football Focus has him  currently at 24 overall out of 110 receivers that have taken over 100 snaps this season (last year, he finished the season ranked 7). That is damn good and the fact that he has to defend his stats at this point in the season after injury makes Klosterman’s argument even more poignant. There’s always room to improve, and I’m sure the Giants, their fans, and Nicks himself would love to have him bust into PFF’s top 10 again. But I don’t think there’s a need to press that issue at the current time.

As for whether stats can be used to impress girls, absolutely. Stats make guys popular and popularity attracts the ladies. But Nicks doesn’t seem to be struggling in that department. 

[Source: Giants' Hakeem Nicks says he did not have a setback, will play vs. Bengals. NJ.com]

Oh while I’m here…I was able to live stream some of the sessions from Blogs with Balls 5. During the diversity session, someone brought up the lack of minorities and women who are experts on sports stats. It was suggested by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders that more minorities and women should get into the stat game and I think that’s a great idea. So yes, stats ARE for girls, or at least they should be…too.

You can watch the video from the panel on the BWB you tube channel:

Dolphins Coach Tony Sparano has been promised he won't be fired in the near term. But that's not how it sounded when he told the refs to review a call or else he would be fired. The Dolphins are in shamnbles.

If you’re here to make fun of Reggie Bush, get it out of your system cause that’s not what’s going to happen in this post. Sorry to disappoint. No I’m not.

I wanted to write a longer post looking at the Dolphins, but when I thought about it…it was kind of pointless. Why? Cause from my vantage point, the Miami Dolphins have 1. a lack of talent (which is just hard to overcome in any situation) and 2. aren’t disciplined on the field, which running back Reggie Bush pointed out yesterday.

It’s just embarrassing, I don’t know any other way to explain it,” Bush said. “It’s an embarrassing loss. Had no business losing that game.”

“We were up 15 points with what, five minutes left to go? And we couldn’t win it? It’s disgusting.”

“Right now, this team stinks.”

The Dolphins controlled the game for the first 55 minutes, but allowed Tim Tebow and the Broncos to drive 80 yards for a touchdown, recover an onside kick, drive 56 yards for another touchdown, convert a two-point conversion and kick a game-winning 52-yard field goal in overtime.

Bush said he and his teammates didn’t have any “fight” in the last five minutes.

“Just a lot of undiscipline on our part,” Bush said. “Played good – not great – for 55 minutes. Everybody’s got that relaxed attitude. We just didn’t fight towards the end. We didn’t have enough effort for 60 minutes. We had five minutes to win the game and we couldn’t.”

The coaching is a big part of this, but again, the Dolphins lack player talent, starting at Quarterback. Chad Henne was doing pretty well in passing, but Matt Moore (who has replaced Henne who’s out for the season) just isn’t very good. Neither are the best at making decisions. But the kicker is that the Dolphins’ offensive line has been horrendous in pass protection and are ranked 30th in the league.  On the run, they’ve been “okay,” respectable even. Bush is averaging 3.9 yards per carry, but his attempts are low. Because Miami’s stuffed rank is #2, I think Bush’s low numbers speak more to play calling than teams stacking up in preparation for Bush. Besides, he hasn’t warranted that consistently in years. Regardless, he should have more than 232 yards total for the season.

The Dolphins have remained competitive in games in the first half, including in their loss to the Jets. But the discipline issue is an issue. Throughout that Jets game, you could see a supreme lack of discipline from Miami’s primary star WR Brandon Marshall. Marshall has at times looked like he wanted nothing to do with the ball and less to do with contact even when running along the sidelines. Bush’s point about having no fight left in them is well-taken. Honestly, when you’re winless at this point in the season, your starting QB is out, it feels like why bother?

Sparano needs to find a way to get these guys motivated. The best scenario here is that the rest of their season is an advanced OTA in preparation for a better next season. But even that’s hard to rally around when you know your QB next year will either be Chad Henne or someone who will be starting from scratch. And even if it’s Andrew Luck, his last name is “luck” not “miracle.” The Dolphins need more of the latter than the former.

Still, the Dolphins just should not have lost to the Denver Broncos and I will never forgive them for increasing the hype around Tebow. They should be ashamed for that alone.

oh wow! You mean there are Cowboys NOT named Tony Romo?

Apparently the Cowboys still enjoy some semblance of being America’s team or whatever cause the Redskins/Cowboys Monday Night Football game got the highest week 3 ratings EVER!  Eva eva? Yes, eva eva. But then again, the NFL is rising in popularity all around so maybe all credit shouldn’t be given to Cowboys marketing and the storied rivalry between them and the Skins.

I fell asleep on this super exciting game right after one of the teams kicked the 5th field goal. Don’t ask me which one cause I don’t like lying in public.

I think the game played out as expected with both defenses playing hard and the stars having a good showing (Demarcus Ware and Brian Orakpo, for example). And at the end, being personified by whichever QB made the last critical mistake. Which in this case was Redskins QB Rex Grossman. I wonder what his haters are saying this morning?

The real story of the week was whether Tony NoNo would play with the cracked rib and miraculously healed punctured lung he sustained in the game against the world famous San Francisco 49ers. And, also,  whether CB Deangelo Hall would take a hurting to any of NoNo’s injuries. Tony delivered. Deangelo lost his package.

I hope Romo doesn’t read a lot of sports sites. Really, no athlete should. But Romo especially given the fact that if he paid attention to what’s said about him even he wouldn’t know what to think of himself.

Romo has been crucified and resurrected more times than any QB in recent memory. I hear there’s a 3rd testament to the bible in the works that covers only Romo’s career. He has been carried to the morgue then dug up and paraded through the streets like a hero several times this season already—and it’s only Week 3.

Why can’t the media just finally decide how fucking good they think Romo is or isn’t and stop taking us on an emotional Romocoaster?

Here’s the real as I see it. As a QB, Romo is…OKAY…GOOD…SOLID…RESPECTABLE. He’s not in my top 10, he’s not elite, but he’s not terrible, embarrassing , middling or below average. He’s just fine. He’s in a comfortable quarterback suite that features a three tier bunk bed with Jay Cutler on top and Mark Sanchez on the bottom. #NoRomo (I’m sorry, but why is his name so much fun!)

Romo makes some critical mistakes at some of the worst times.  Sometimes he wins in spite of them and sometimes he loses badly. That’s what makes him GOOD and not great. But he’s not the only person on the team and he damn sure doesn’t coach himself. Ain’t nothing in this world wrong with having a solid QB. In fact, in this league it’s a blessing.

But back to my point. Romo is 31…he’s not a youngin anymore. We should have decided what we think about him already. But because sports is nothing without superlatives, and “good” just isn’t a good enough in the world of SEO, we are alternately told that Romo is huge disappointment or a gigantic under-appreciated success depending on whether a groundhog sees his shadow that day or not.

Quite frankly, I’m tired of it.

I remember one of my favorite players, Demarcus Ware, complaining about his ranking on the NFL Top 100 players list among other griping about not getting his due. It’s quite possible Ware doesn’t get his due in part because people are too busy talking about Romo to realize there are other Cowboys.

The great talent that is Dez Bryant could barely get a mention until the world found out he was in diamond debt. Nary a peep about Miles Austin until he dated and then promptly dumped hot hottie Kim Kardashian.

The next time people are so inclined to discuss how good Romo is consider it a well-worn NoNo and give some lip service to one of the other Cowboys. Sean Lee perhaps?

15 year League veteran Baltimore Ravens Ray Lewis Looking Spry As Ever.

Already in the league 34 years, Baltimore Ravens Ray Lewis says the signing of Nose Tackle Haloti Ngata to a long term (5 year 61 million!) deal makes him want to play longer for the Ravens. I don’t know how much “longer” is but let’s look at some long careers shall we?

New Orleans Saints Kicker John Kasay has currently been in the league 21 years. Kicker is not such a dangerous position though so that’s either amazing or not-so-amazing. Can’t really say. But 21 years is a long time to do any one thing if you ask me. Even kicking with the way they get fired at the drop of a dime (or bad kick). So for this year Kasay is a strong 5 for 5.

I believe George Blanda still holds the record for longest NFL career at 26 years. He was both a quarterback AND a placekicker. My how the league has changed, can you see Tom Brady kicking one in?

Many offensive lineman last 12 years or more. But not many linebackers make it past that 10 year mark for reasons I think are pretty obvious. When one group of researchers looked at player longevity they, of course, found a strong correlation between position and longevity.

For the 2008 NFL season, 39 percent of the 2004 Combine players were still active. For 1,889 players listed on 32 NFL team rosters, the average longevity was 4.6 years, with only 7 percent of players having experience in the league beyond 10 years. Four of five players with the greatest longevity (>18 yr) were punters or kickers (the other, a rare quarterback).

From these data, the research team discovered orthopedic or health-related factors were not as relevant in predicting longevity. The more prominent factor was where on the field these athletes played.

Specifically, the injuries associated with position showed the strongest link to overall career longevity. Injury locations and diagnoses were shaped by position; for example, offensive lineman had more back and neck injuries while linebackers experienced more shoulder injuries. Most injuries were at the shoulder and knee, with the lower back, neck, foot and ankle also common sites of players’ injury history. Tears were the most common type of injury, followed by dislocations, trauma, fractures and sprains.

With the way Lewis plays, you have to wonder if it’s one of those “Death Becomes Her” situations where Lewis has some serum that keeps him forever young and virile. Something is going on here and I want answers (so I can copy the paper)! I think one thing that worries me about Lewis is that I fear he may be one of those guys that is strong as long as he’s playing and begins to deteriorate pretty quickly the minute he’s done. I hope that’s not the case, I know he keeps one of the toughest off season workout regimens there is and I’m hopeful that we have this big guy around for a long time. Can you imagine his Hall of Fame speech?

In case you’re wondering just how productive Lewis has been, Advanced NFL Stats took a look recently.

The graph is plotted on 2 different axes. The red line is +EPA/G and the green line is SC/G, both of which are plotted with the primary (left) vertical axis. The blue line is +WPA/G and is plotted on the secondary (right) axis.

If the graph ended at 2005, you’d think that Lewis was in the twilight of his career, but he’s been making plays at a very high level since. He peaked somewhere between ’01 and ’03, but there’s been no lasting decline to speak of.

I think this graph probably speaks to Lewis’ comment about Ngata. The stronger the players around him, the better he is able to do his job. He’s not a young guy that can clean up problems for other guys anymore. In order to perform at a high level he needs others to know and perform their jobs well (I think this really applies to any job!).  And as long as he surrounded by talent, there’s probably a starting spot for him on the Ravens roster for the next couple years.

And seriously, how crazy is it to have your dad play football in the NFL while YOU’RE playing in high school.

The oft-maligned Miami Dolphins QB Chad Henne cranked out 416 yards against the Pats

89 sacks were recorded opening weekend in the NFL. That’s more than have ever been recorded since they started keeping track back in ’82.

5 sacks on Tavaris Jackson, Kyle Orton, Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler. 4 sacks on 9 other QBs (including Ben Roethlisberger in the Steelers embarrassing loss to the Ravens) and 3 on Michael Vick and some others I’m too lazy to look up.

The same weekend 4 QBs passed for more than 400 yards (including rookie Panthers Cam Newton, New England’s Tom Brady and Miami’s Chad Henne who did so in a game against the Pats, and New Orleans Saints Drew Brees). There was a total of 7,842 passing  yards in all games opening weekend with a total of 14 QBs passing for over 300 yards. Those 14 included Washington Redskins Rex Grossman, Arizona Cardinals Kevin Kolb, Dallas Cowboys Tony Romo, San Diego Chargers Phillip Rivers, New York Jets Mark Sanchez, Detroit’s Matthew Stafford and Denver Broncos Kyle Orton. A few QBs stopped just short of 300 such as New  York Giants Eli Manning who came in around 268 yards.

Both the increase in yards and sacks just highlight the fact that the pass keeps growing and growing and growing. And, consequently, so does pass rushing. There are some teams like the Jets who unleash constant blitzes aimed at confusing the other team’s offensive front line and QB. And still other teams like the Philadelphia Eagles who play their ends wide and apply constant pressure on each possession without a need to blitz.

With so many teams having only two QBs on the roster and possibly someone who can be an “emergency” QB the way Wide Receiver Hines Ward is for the Pittsburgh Steelers, the need to keep the passer on his feet is elevated. Let’s not forget that even when QBs manage to stay on their feet, they’ve often still absorbed a hit.